Ucraina, guerra mondiale nucleare, gli Usa: "Un miliardo di morti"
Guerra Russia-Nato partendo dall'Ucraina. La simulazione del 2019
Guerra mondiale, inverno nucleare dopo il conflitto atomico. Video
Nel 2019 gli Stati Uniti hanno simulato una "guerra Nato-Russia" che parte dall'Ucraina con un miliardo di morti
Una simulazione spaventosamente realistica del 2019, anticipa ciò che ora sta accadendo in parte nella realtà e che in caso di escalation potrebbe portare a una catastrofe globale. Uno dei partecipanti a questo "gioco di guerra" è stato Harry J. Kazianis, direttore senior del Center for the National Interest, un think tank sulla sicurezza nazionale con sede a Washington fondato dal presidente Richard Nixon.
Kazianis è l'autore del seguente articolo.
Un intervento della NATO in Ucraina potrebbe innescare una guerra nucleare. Vediamo nel dettaglio cosa potrebbe accadere
Di Harry J. Kazianis
"Come facciamo a uccidere un miliardo di persone?" (fonte https://www.nogeoingegneria.com)
As they have done countless times in recent years, a group of past and present senior US government officials from both sides met for just three days in late 2019 to simulate a war between NATO and Russia . In what we have called the 2019 NATO-Russia War , we estimate one billion people have died. And if we're not careful, what happened in that simulation could happen if a NATO-Russia warburst for Ukraine. Indeed, in the 2019 simulation I just mentioned, where Russia invades Ukraine in a similar way to the last week or so, not only is NATO unwittingly dragged along, Russia eventually drops nuclear weapons as well. in his despair.
The result is an escalation with ever more powerful and dangerous nuclear weapons, causing more than a billion deaths.
But before we start looking into the abyss, let me explain the purpose of such simulations. NATO would clearly have a huge conventional advantage in a war with Moscow, ensuring that Putin would lose in a direct confrontation. However, Russia has stated over and over againthat it will use nuclear weapons to defend its territory and its regime in the event of a deadly threat. Our simulation asks as always: Will we ever be able to defeat Russian President Vladamir Putin in an armed conflict over Ukraine or the Baltic without waging a nuclear war in this way? So far, over the past few years, and with at least 100 different participants having different ideas about war and political preferences, the answer is a flat no.
Prepare the scenario for the war
The scenario that the group had decided to test at the end of 2019 was similar to today: Russia had decided to invade Ukraine with the excuse of having to defend the Russian-speaking peoples who are "oppressed" by the fascist government of ' Ukraine. In our scenario, we have imagined that Russia behaves much more admirably than it does today, however with more limited objectives, in the sense that Moscow wants to link Crimea to the breakaway regions of eastern Ukraine that are under its effective control. . We have assumed that Russia does this quickly, achieving most of its military goals in about four days.
But Ukraine doesn't give up that easily, just like in real life today. Ukrainian forces, after suffering heavy losses, mount an impressive counterattack, as a result of which Russia loses more than 100 tanks and over 2,500 soldiers. Images on social media show Russian armor ablaze, elite Su-35 fighter jets being wiped out from the skies, and weapons are pouring in from the West.
Putin is furious. He thought that Ukraine would simply surrender, but in his calculation he does not take into account the nearly decade-long training Kyiv has received from the United States and NATO, nor the military strengthening of Ukraine in recent years , which was focused on this. scenario.
Russia then decides that its limited military objectives were a mistake and that all of Ukraine must be "demilitarized". Moscow then launched a massive attack with ballistic and cruise missiles, followed by its own "shock and awe" campaign by the Russian air forces, destroying much of the command and control of Ukraine, air forces, air defense and armored units. At the same time, Russia is beginning to move troops to Ukraine's borders which appear as an impending invasion and general occupation of the entire country.
The spark
This is where the situation degenerates. A Russian ballistic missile guidance system fails and crashes into NATO member Poland, killing 34 civilians as it tragically lands in an inhabited village along the Polish-Ukrainian border. Even though the missile was not deliberately aimed at Poland, the images on social media show children crying for their mothers and unrecognizable corpses, and justice and revenge are demanded.
Poland, which has its own troubled history with the Soviet Union and Russia, is doing its best to practice moderation, which does it credit. While not responding with his own army, he leads an effort to ensure that Moscow pays a heavy price for his aggression in Ukraine and his unwitting actions in Poland. Warsaw leads a diplomatic and economic boycott of Moscow with the result that Russia is kicked out of SWIFT in addition to direct sanctions on Russian banks, similar to what we see today.
In our scenario, Russia's reaction is just as quick. Moscow decides to launch a massive cyber attack on Poland, having positioned cyber warriors across NATO territory, using their geography and proxy servers to mask the origin of the attack. Russia, in just two hours, takes Poland's entire electricity grid, banking sector, power plants and more offline - essentially bringing Poland back to the stone age.
And this is where the nightmare begins. While it is difficult to blame, Poland appeals to NATO and privately initiates its call to invoke Article 5 of the NATO Charter, declaring that an attack on one is an attack on the entire alliance. NATO is concerned that there is a discussion on the extent to which Russia should be punished. At the same time, member states feel they do not have a clear military objective, as some want to react to events in Poland, while others feel they have to intervene militarily in Ukraine.
The answer
This is where NATO surprises everyone. The alliance decides to establish a limited no-fly zone around the Ukrainian city of Lviv to protect innocent civilians and refugees who are trapped and have nowhere to go. Russia is warned: NATO does not intervene in the conflict, but will ensure that its planes and the airspace around Lviv are protected. NATO clarifies that its jets will be in the skies over Ukraine, but will not operate from Ukrainian territory.
In Moscow, Putin now has the feeling that NATO is intent on intervening alongside Ukraine. Russia fears that NATO will use this secure corridor as a base of operations to send ever more sophisticated weapons. And with the country's economy in free fall due to sanctions, Putin feels the walls around him are tightening. Before NATO can enforce its no-fly zone, Putin orders to attack all remaining airports and military installations around Lviv.
But this is where Putin miscalculates and sets the stage for a NATO-Russia war. Putin orders another massive cyber attack on the military infrastructure of the Baltic states, thinking that NATO will use the Baltic to stage an invasion of Russia.
This ends up being the last straw for NATO, which then decides that immediate intervention in Ukraine is necessary to repel Russian aggression. Even before an announcement is made, Russian intelligence sees missile and troop movements indicating an impending NATO attack and decides to strike first - with tactical nuclear weapons.
NATO decides to respond in turn.
Russia then attacks European cities with nuclear weapons, and then NATO and America also respond with nuclear weapons. What remains is a veritable apocalypse with an estimated one billion deaths.
No war goes as planned
In every scenario I have been a part of, there is a theme common to all of them: Once Vladimir Putin feels in a grip and feels that Russia is directly threatened, generally due to a mistake made on the battlefield, decides to use all escalation levels to try to make up for it.
It may be that Ukraine and Russia will soon find a diplomatic way out of this brutal war, but both sides seem to be entrenching themselves. This means that the chances of an escalation like the one described above are high. And if Russia and NATO get involved in a direct conflict, Putin is certain that his regime would be defeated in conventional combat. This means that Russia will opt for nuclear war.
Obviously the question that arises in a war between NATO and Russia is: how many millions or billions of people would die?
Harry J. Kazianis is director of defense studies at the Center for the National Interest in Washington DC and executive editor of their editorial arm, The National Interest. The views expressed in this article are his. He's on Twitter @grecianformula.
TRANSLATION BY NOGEOINGEGNERIA - TELEGRAM CHANNEL https://t.me/NogeoingegneriaNews
SGS (SCIENCE GLOBAL SICURITY) has developed a new simulation for a possible escalating war between the United States and Russia using realistic nuclear force positions, targets and mortality estimates.
This four-minute audiovisual document is based on independent assessments of the current positions of US and Russian forces, nuclear war plans, and nuclear weapons goals. It uses vast amounts of data on currently deployed nuclear weapons, weapon yields and potential targets for specific weapons, as well as battle order estimates of which weapons target which targets, in what order and at what stage of the war, to show the evolution of a nuclear conflict from the tactical to the strategic to the targeted phase.
The immediate deaths and injuries that would occur at each stage of the conflict are calculated using NUKEMAP data . Casualty estimates are limited to deaths directly caused by nuclear explosions and would be significantly aggravated by deaths caused by nuclear fallout and other long-term effects.
COLD, FARESTIS AND RADIATION: THE NUCLEAR WINTER AFTER AN ATOMIC WAR
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