Esteri
Ucraina, guerra mondiale nucleare, gli Usa: "Un miliardo di morti"
Guerra Russia-Nato partendo dall'Ucraina. La simulazione del 2019
In our scenario, Russia's reaction is just as quick. Moscow decides to launch a massive cyber attack on Poland, having positioned cyber warriors across NATO territory, using their geography and proxy servers to mask the origin of the attack. Russia, in just two hours, takes Poland's entire electricity grid, banking sector, power plants and more offline - essentially bringing Poland back to the stone age.
And this is where the nightmare begins. While it is difficult to blame, Poland appeals to NATO and privately initiates its call to invoke Article 5 of the NATO Charter, declaring that an attack on one is an attack on the entire alliance. NATO is concerned that there is a discussion on the extent to which Russia should be punished. At the same time, member states feel they do not have a clear military objective, as some want to react to events in Poland, while others feel they have to intervene militarily in Ukraine.
The answer
This is where NATO surprises everyone. The alliance decides to establish a limited no-fly zone around the Ukrainian city of Lviv to protect innocent civilians and refugees who are trapped and have nowhere to go. Russia is warned: NATO does not intervene in the conflict, but will ensure that its planes and the airspace around Lviv are protected. NATO clarifies that its jets will be in the skies over Ukraine, but will not operate from Ukrainian territory.
In Moscow, Putin now has the feeling that NATO is intent on intervening alongside Ukraine. Russia fears that NATO will use this secure corridor as a base of operations to send ever more sophisticated weapons. And with the country's economy in free fall due to sanctions, Putin feels the walls around him are tightening. Before NATO can enforce its no-fly zone, Putin orders to attack all remaining airports and military installations around Lviv.
But this is where Putin miscalculates and sets the stage for a NATO-Russia war. Putin orders another massive cyber attack on the military infrastructure of the Baltic states, thinking that NATO will use the Baltic to stage an invasion of Russia.
This ends up being the last straw for NATO, which then decides that immediate intervention in Ukraine is necessary to repel Russian aggression. Even before an announcement is made, Russian intelligence sees missile and troop movements indicating an impending NATO attack and decides to strike first - with tactical nuclear weapons.
NATO decides to respond in turn.
Russia then attacks European cities with nuclear weapons, and then NATO and America also respond with nuclear weapons. What remains is a veritable apocalypse with an estimated one billion deaths.
No war goes as planned
In every scenario I have been a part of, there is a theme common to all of them: Once Vladimir Putin feels in a grip and feels that Russia is directly threatened, generally due to a mistake made on the battlefield, decides to use all escalation levels to try to make up for it.
It may be that Ukraine and Russia will soon find a diplomatic way out of this brutal war, but both sides seem to be entrenching themselves. This means that the chances of an escalation like the one described above are high. And if Russia and NATO get involved in a direct conflict, Putin is certain that his regime would be defeated in conventional combat. This means that Russia will opt for nuclear war.
Obviously the question that arises in a war between NATO and Russia is: how many millions or billions of people would die?
Harry J. Kazianis is director of defense studies at the Center for the National Interest in Washington DC and executive editor of their editorial arm, The National Interest. The views expressed in this article are his. He's on Twitter @grecianformula.
TRANSLATION BY NOGEOINGEGNERIA - TELEGRAM CHANNEL https://t.me/NogeoingegneriaNews
SGS (SCIENCE GLOBAL SICURITY) has developed a new simulation for a possible escalating war between the United States and Russia using realistic nuclear force positions, targets and mortality estimates.
This four-minute audiovisual document is based on independent assessments of the current positions of US and Russian forces, nuclear war plans, and nuclear weapons goals. It uses vast amounts of data on currently deployed nuclear weapons, weapon yields and potential targets for specific weapons, as well as battle order estimates of which weapons target which targets, in what order and at what stage of the war, to show the evolution of a nuclear conflict from the tactical to the strategic to the targeted phase.
The immediate deaths and injuries that would occur at each stage of the conflict are calculated using NUKEMAP data . Casualty estimates are limited to deaths directly caused by nuclear explosions and would be significantly aggravated by deaths caused by nuclear fallout and other long-term effects.
COLD, FARESTIS AND RADIATION: THE NUCLEAR WINTER AFTER AN ATOMIC WAR
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