Guerra Russia-Nato: un miliardo di morti. Simulazione choc del 2019

Inverno nucleare dopo il conflitto atomico. Video

Nel 2019 gli Stati Uniti hanno simulato una "guerra Nato-Russia" che parte dall'Ucraina con un miliardo di morti

Una simulazione spaventosamente realistica del 2019, anticipa ciò che ora sta accadendo in parte nella realtà e che in caso di escalation potrebbe portare a una catastrofe globale. Uno dei partecipanti a questo "gioco di guerra" è stato Harry J. Kazianis, direttore senior del Center for the National Interest, un think tank sulla sicurezza nazionale con sede a Washington fondato dal presidente Richard Nixon.

Kazianis è l'autore del seguente articolo.

Un intervento della NATO in Ucraina potrebbe innescare una guerra nucleare. Vediamo nel dettaglio cosa potrebbe accadere

Di Harry J. Kazianis

"Come facciamo a uccidere un miliardo di persone?" (fonte https://www.nogeoingegneria.com)

As they have done countless times in recent years, a group of past and present senior US government officials from both sides met for just three days in late 2019 to simulate a war between NATO and Russia . In what we have called the 2019 NATO-Russia War , we estimate one billion people have died. And if we're not careful, what happened in that simulation could happen if a NATO-Russia warburst for Ukraine. Indeed, in the 2019 simulation I just mentioned, where Russia invades Ukraine in a similar way to the last week or so, not only is NATO unwittingly dragged along, Russia eventually drops nuclear weapons as well. in his despair. 

The result is an escalation with ever more powerful and dangerous nuclear weapons, causing more than a billion deaths.

But before we start looking into the abyss, let me explain the purpose of such simulations.  NATO would clearly have a huge conventional advantage in a war with Moscow, ensuring that Putin would lose in a direct confrontation. However, Russia has stated over and over againthat it will use nuclear weapons to defend its territory and its regime in the event of a deadly threat. Our simulation asks as always: Will we ever be able to defeat Russian President Vladamir Putin in an armed conflict over Ukraine or the Baltic without waging a nuclear war in this way? So far, over the past few years, and with at least 100 different participants having different ideas about war and political preferences, the answer is a flat no.

Prepare the scenario for the war

The scenario that the group had decided to test at the end of 2019 was similar to today: Russia had decided to invade Ukraine with the excuse of having to defend the Russian-speaking peoples who are "oppressed" by the fascist government of ' Ukraine. In our scenario, we have imagined that Russia behaves much more admirably than it does today, however with more limited objectives, in the sense that Moscow wants to link Crimea to the breakaway regions of eastern Ukraine that are under its effective control. . We have assumed that Russia does this quickly, achieving most of its military goals in about four days.

But Ukraine doesn't give up that easily, just like in real life today. Ukrainian forces, after suffering heavy losses, mount an impressive counterattack, as a result of which Russia loses more than 100 tanks and over 2,500 soldiers. Images on social media show Russian armor ablaze, elite Su-35 fighter jets being wiped out from the skies, and weapons are pouring in from the West.

Putin is furious. He thought that Ukraine would simply surrender, but in his calculation he does not take into account the nearly decade-long training Kyiv has received from the United States and NATO, nor the military strengthening of Ukraine in recent years , which was focused on this. scenario.

Russia then decides that its limited military objectives were a mistake and that all of Ukraine must be "demilitarized". Moscow then launched a massive attack with ballistic and cruise missiles, followed by its own "shock and awe" campaign by the Russian air forces, destroying much of the command and control of Ukraine, air forces, air defense and armored units. At the same time, Russia is beginning to move troops to Ukraine's borders which appear as an impending invasion and general occupation of the entire country.

The spark

This is where the situation degenerates. A Russian ballistic missile guidance system fails and crashes into NATO member Poland, killing 34 civilians as it tragically lands in an inhabited village along the Polish-Ukrainian border. Even though the missile was not deliberately aimed at Poland, the images on social media show children crying for their mothers and unrecognizable corpses, and justice and revenge are demanded.

Poland, which has its own troubled history with the Soviet Union and Russia, is doing its best to practice moderation, which does it credit. While not responding with his own army, he leads an effort to ensure that Moscow pays a heavy price for his aggression in Ukraine and his unwitting actions in Poland. Warsaw leads a diplomatic and economic boycott of Moscow with the result that Russia is kicked out of SWIFT  in addition to direct sanctions on Russian banks, similar to what we see today.